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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Bernanke plays down need for rate cuts??

Ben Bernanke challenged market expectations of early US interest rate cuts on Wednesday, saying he remained comfortable with rates on hold in spite of recent adverse economic data.
However, the Federal Reserve chairman said the risks to both inflation and growth had increased in the past few weeks and the US central bank would be flexible in responding to future economic news.
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Mr Bernanke told the joint economic committee of Congress: “To date the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation.”
The Fed’s recent policy statement – which baffled markets when it was released a week ago – was not intended to signal that the Fed now had a neutral policy stance, he said.
“I want to emphasise that we have not shifted away from an inflation bias,” he said.
Mr Bernanke said changes to the Fed statement were intended to give it greater scope to respond quickly if the outlook for either growth or inflation deteriorated significantly. “We are looking for a bit more flexibility given the uncertainty we face.”
Mr Bernanke also brushed aside comments by Alan Greenspan, his predecessor, that the expansion looked to be ageing, raising the possibility of a recession. Expansions did not “die of old age”, he said.
Mr Bernanke played down the threat from the subprime mortgage market and highlighted a new risk to growth from weak business investment. His comments came as the Department of Commerce released figures showing that durable goods orders bounced back weakly in February after a plunge in January.
“The possibility that the recent weakness in business spending will persist is an additional downside risk,” he said.
The Fed chairman hinted that the weakness had been a surprise: “The magnitude of the slowdown has been somewhat greater than would be expected given the normal evolution of the business cycle.”
But he added: “Despite the recent weak readings, we expect business investment in equipment and software to grow at a moderate pace this year.”
He was less alarmed than many investors by the distress in the subprime mortgage market.
“At this juncture...the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seem likely to be contained,” he said.
He recognised the risk that the housing market correction “could turn out to be more severe than we currently expect, perhaps exacerbated by problems in the subprime sector”. Overall, he indicated that the US central bank remained relatively upbeat about prospects for growth.
He said consumer spending “has continued to be well maintained so far this year” and said consumption “should continue to support the economic expansion in the coming quarters”.
Mr Bernanke added “the economy appears likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over the coming quarters”.
He reiterated a series of reasons for the Fed to remain concerned about inflation. “The high level of resource utilisation remains an important upside risk to continued progress on reducing inflation,” Mr Bernanke said.

1 comment:

ede.bizz said...

Asian Stocks Decline on Bernanke

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation remains his main concern, prompting a decline in the dollar. Toyota Motor Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. led exporters lower.

``Bernanke implied an early rate cut is not likely,'' said Soichiro Monji, who helps oversee about $47 billion at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Weak U.S. economic indicators should result in a weak dollar. Theoretically, these factors should only affect the exporters, but the events are affecting investor sentiment generally.''

Rising crude prices raised concerns that fuel costs may increase for some companies. Inpex Holdings Inc. and Woodside Petroleum Ltd. paced an advance by oil producers.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.7 percent to 143.97 at 10:58 a.m. in Tokyo. All of the measure's 10 industry indexes fell except for energy.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average and the broader Topix Index lost 0.9 percent. All markets open for trading declined except in Australia and South Korea.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 0.8 percent, erasing its gain for the year.

Weaker-than-forecast durable goods data added to reports this week that the housing market continues to deteriorate and consumer confidence is waning. In testimony before Congress, Bernanke said inflation is a ``greater risk'' than slower growth, spurring concern the Fed may be unwilling to lower interest rates to prop up the economy.

Yen Gains

Toyota, the world's No. 2 automaker, slid 0.8 percent to 7,560 yen. Samsung Electronics Co., the world's largest maker of computer-memory chips, lost 1.1 percent to 566,000 won. The company is South Korea's largest exporter.

Exporters in Japan also declined after the yen strengthened 0.8 percent to 116.85 against the dollar in New York, its biggest climb since March 13. A stronger yen decreases the value of Japanese exporters' dollar-denominated sales when converted into local currency, while their products become less competitive abroad. Japan's currency recently changed hands at 117.07 versus the dollar.

Sony Corp., the maker of the PlayStation 3 game console, dropped 2.8 percent to 5,910 yen. Canon Inc., which generated almost 75 percent of its sales from overseas last year, fell 0.9 percent to 6,350 yen.

``The Japanese market has to be conscious of the implications of Bernanke's comments,'' said Juichi Wako, a strategist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``The recent tendency toward a stronger yen makes it hard to buy the exporters.''

Crude Oil Advances

U.S. durable-goods orders excluding transportation unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department said yesterday, a second month of declines. Orders for goods made to last several years were expected to rise 1.8 percent, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

A measure of energy stocks on MSCI's Asian benchmark gained 0.6 percent. Inpex, Japan's biggest oil explorer, rose 0.6 percent to 1 million yen. Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., the second biggest, climbed 1.6 percent to 8,480 yen. Woodside, Australia's second-largest oil and gas company, added 0.4 percent to A$39.39.

Crude oil for May delivery rose 1.8 percent to $64.08 a barrel in New York yesterday, the highest close since Sept. 11.